Summary: Development of an easy-to-use, robust and new probabilistic early warning system (EWS) of coastal flooding in open beaches, deriving coastal flooding hazard (e.g. overwash, overtopping and inundation) by using both empirical approaches and process-based models, with the latter properly considering the hydro-morphodynamic interaction. In order to consider beach morphology changes on the inundation forecast, an automatic monitoring scheme will be developed based on satellite information, which will be previously validated with drones and ground surveys.

The EWS will have two time scales of interest: the former, short-term forecast (up to 72 hours); and the later, mid-term forecast (up to 15 days). A novel approach for considering the wave climate at local scale is proposed based on hybrid and statistical downscaling methods. The use of statistical downscaling techniques based on weather types will address the forecast on the mid-term (15 days). The methods will be tested in Laredo beach (Cantabria, Spain).