The overall objective of HyBay project is to develop a tool for the reliable and rapid analysis of different impacts on estuaries and bays at a range of scenarios defined by different climate regimes (present, climate change) and implementing different adaptation measures. The impacts that HyBay project will study are: changes in sea level, flooding events, saline intrusion, changes in the pattern of currents and thermal circulation in estuaries and changes in the sediment balance in these systems. The core of this tool requires the use of the framework of hybrid methodologies. To test the validity of this tool, at least three systems with different dynamics, geometries, pressures and impacts will be selected, such as Santoña estuary (Cantabria) (impact: flooding events, changes in morphodynamics).
Due to the innovative character of the project, several key specific objectives arise::
O.1 To develop a Data hub, an interoperable access point able to ingest in a standarised way all climatic information (global and regional reanalysis databases), climate change projections, topographic, bathymetric and sedimentological information from different databases for the three selected study-sites.
O.2 To identify and categorize existing adaptation measures to contribute to standardize the analysis of adaptation measures and to make it comprehensive.
O.3 To develop a specific calibration and validation framework for numerical models (hydrodynamic and morphodynamic) on estuarine systems. The calibration and validation framework will serve: 1) to incorporate the data obtained from the hydrodynamic field campaigns and the topographic information obtained with multispectral cameras supported by drones; 2) to facilitate the implementation of the numerical models in those usual situations where the available information is limited.
O.4. To develop a probabilistic framework to generate synthetic compound events (waves, surge, river discharge) to complement the scarcity of multivariate extreme events in the databases of climatic drivers in order to provide robust estimates of the impacts in estuaries and bays.
O.5. To develop and implement a hybrid methodology to reproduce all the relevant dynamics specific to estuaries, bays and semi-enclosed water bodies (combining dynamic downscaling tools with statistical and machine learning tools).
O.6. To create an interactive Dash application prototype (Dash App) to allow the potential user to make the most of the tools generated, visualizing the results provided by all the developments of the HyBay project. Hence, the Dash App will allow the user to analyze the response to any adaptation measure or engineering action under different climate scenarios: such as average conditions, extreme weather conditions and climate change scenarios.
